WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is 'very unlikely' to be extradited to the US from Britain according to a US national security law expert.
FEDERAL minister and right-wing Labor powerbroker Mark Arbib has been revealed as a confidential contact of the United States embassy in Canberra, providing inside information and commentary for Washington on the workings of the Australian government and the Labor Party.
Secret US embassy cables obtained by WikiLeaks and made available exclusively to The Age reveal that Senator Arbib, one of the architects of Kevin Rudd's removal as prime minister, has been in regular contact with US embassy officers.
His candid comments have been incorporated into reports to Washington with repeated requests that his identity as a ''protected'' source be guarded.
Mark Arbib Photo: Andrew Sheargold
Embassy cables reporting on the Labor Party and national political developments, frequently classified "No Forn" - meaning no distribution to non-US personnel - refer to Senator Arbib as a strong supporter of Australia's alliance with the US.
They identify him as a valuable source of information on Labor politics, including Mr Rudd's hopes to forestall an eventual leadership challenge from then deputy prime minister Julia Gillard.
"He understands the importance of supporting a vibrant relationship with the US while not being too deferential. We have found him personable, confident and articulate,'' an embassy profile on Senator Arbib written in July 2009 says. "He has met with us repeatedly throughout his political rise.''
Other Labor politicians reported in US embassy cables as regular contacts include former federal MP and minister Bob McMullan and Michael Danby, the Labor member for Melbourne Ports.
A former secretary of the New South Wales branch of the Labor Party, Senator Arbib was a key backroom figure in the Labor ''coup'' in June that resulted in Mr Rudd being replaced by Ms Gillard as PM.
He has been a senator since July 2008 and was made a parliamentary secretary in February 2009. Mr Rudd elevated him to the ministry in June 2009. He currently holds the ministerial portfolios of Sport, Indigenous Employment, and Social Housing and Homelessness.
Instructed to find out how decisions were made in the government, US diplomats were quick to focus on Senator Arbib as a "right-wing powerbroker and political rising star'' who had made "a quick transition from the parliamentary backrooms into the ministry''.
The US embassy noted that ''the New South Wales Labor party's kingmaker'' was integral in raising numbers for Mr Rudd to overthrow Kim Beazley as Labor leader in 2006, and that Senator Arbib was "a close adviser to Rudd and is his key conduit to the ALP factions''.
"Arbib is an influential factional operator who has forged strong political connections with Rudd,'' the embassy recorded. "We have been told that Rudd respects Arbib's political expertise, and a contact noted that Arbib is brought into Rudd's inner circle when politically important decisions are made.
"Arbib is said to be loyal to, but frank with, Rudd, and is one of Rudd's closest advisers. Yet, publicly, Arbib has denied being part of Rudd's inner circle."
US diplomats also found that Arbib "is an astute observer and able conversant on the nuts and bolts of US politics''.
Senator Arbib first appears as a contributor to US embassy political reporting while he was NSW Labor state secretary. In May 2006 he declared to US diplomats that Australia was at risk of becoming a ''quarry for the Chinese and a tourist destination for the Japanese''.
He warned that it would be "a tough struggle for the Labor Party to win the federal elections in 2007''. But he thought Kim Beazley, because he was the opposite of the volatile Mark Latham, was ''the right man to lead the ALP at the present time''.
However, he also told embassy officers that, unlike Mr Beazley, he supported Australia's military commitment in Iraq "as well as the war on terrorism in general''.
After the Rudd government's election in 2007, Senator Arbib offered reassurance about then deputy prime minister Gillard's political leanings, describing her as "one of the most pragmatic politicians in the ALP''.
He also confirmed Mr Rudd's tendencies towards micromanagement and told the embassy that "Rudd's staff would like to get their boss to spend less time on foreign policy and delegate more, but that they recognise that this is a hopeless task''.
In October 2009, as Mr Rudd's popular support began to sag, Senator Arbib openly canvassed emerging leadership tensions within the government, telling US envoys that Mr Rudd wanted "to ensure that there are viable alternatives to Gillard within the Labor Party to forestall a challenge''.
Senator Arbib added that Mr Rudd still appreciated Ms Gillard's strengths, while an another unidentified adviser to the Labor prime minister told US diplomats that "while the PM respects Gillard, his reluctance to share power will eventually lead to a falling-out, while Gillard will not want to acquiesce in creating potential rivals''.
In June this year, Senator Arbib and other Labor Right figures moved to depose Mr Rudd from the leadership, precipitating the events that led to Ms Gillard's becoming Prime Minister.
Senator Arbib last night declined to comment on the WikiLeaks disclosures.
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